Section I -- The Base Rate

In 2026, a study published in Nature's npj Climate Action assessed more than 4,000 companies with climate pledges across seven dimensions of greenwashing risk -- missing interim targets, Scope 3 exclusion, offset reliance, misaligned lobbying, and three others. The study found that 96% of pledging companies exhibit at least one risk indicator.

The Bureau wishes to frame this correctly. Ninety-six percent is not a failure rate. It is the base rate. When 96 out of every 100 participants in a system exhibit the same behaviour, you are no longer describing outliers. You are describing the system. The 4% who are clean are the statistical anomaly. They are the ones who require explanation.

Net-zero pledges now cover 92% of global GDP and 88% of global emissions. Only 20% meet minimum robustness criteria set by the UN Race to Zero Campaign. The planet is 92% covered by promises and 20% covered by plans. The Bureau confirms that this gap is not an oversight. It is the product.